Is the Polish economy slowing down? There are the latest data

– According to a flash estimate, seasonally unadjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.4% year-on-year in real terms in the first quarter of 2026 – the Central Statistical Office (GUS) announced on Thursday.

In the first quarter of last year, Polish GDP increased by 3.2%. In turn, in the last quarter of 2025, there was an increase of 4%.

The Central Statistical Office also reported that real GDP increased by 0.5%. compared to the previous quarter and was higher than last year by 3.4%. Real GDP not seasonally adjusted (at constant average annual prices of the previous year) increased by 3.4% compared to the same period of the previous year

Poland’s GDP below expectations

Today’s data are slightly worse than economists’ expectations – the market consensus was 3.7%. – It has started. GDP decelerated in the first quarter to 3.4% y/y. – Pekao analysts write in their comments on today’s data.

– It didn’t actually start. There are no effects of the Gulf War yet. The slowdown in GDP growth at the beginning of the year is primarily a matter of investment weakness caused by the severe winter. In the following quarters, growth close to 3.5% is expected. In 2027, more severe braking, up to 2.7% – they add.

PKO BP experts also point out that today’s data are the result of a longer than usual winter. – The slowdown was mainly due to extreme frosts that limited activity in construction, industry and services in January and February. Later in the year, the key challenge will be the increase in prices of raw materials, especially fuels, which will temporarily weaken consumer demand and the production potential of the economy. However, households have savings that will enable them to stabilize consumption in times of shock, and enterprises have proven time and time again that they can cope in difficult conditions. Therefore, we maintain our forecast of full-year GDP growth at approximately 3.5%. – write bank analysts.

The Minister of Finance and Economy also referred to the Central Statistical Office data. Andrzej Domański points out that Poland has the highest economic growth rate among large EU economies. – Despite a very cold winter, fuel shock and growing global economic tensions, the Polish economy grew by 3.4% y/y in the first quarter of 2026. This is the highest growth rate among large EU economies – wrote the head of the Ministry of Finance and Economy on the X platform.

Full GDP data for the first quarter of 2026 will be released on June 1.