Inflation target this year. Glapiński: “The moment is near”

On Wednesday, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) announced a reduction in interest rates by 0.25 points. percent, which means that the main reference rate dropped to 4.25 percent. This is the fifth reduction this year (since the beginning of 2025, interest rates have fallen by a total of 1.50 percentage points).

The Thursday press conference of the President of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) and Chairman of the Council, Adam Glapiński, was devoted to the decision of the body. – In total, in 2025 we reduced rates by as much as 150 basis points. Without a doubt, this is an easing of monetary policy that supports economic growth – said the head of the central bank, quoted by Money.pl.

Another interest rate cut this year?

Glapiński reminded that preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) show that consumer inflation in October amounted to 2.8%, which is close to the inflation target of 2.5%. Preliminary estimates also show that core inflation (data that does not include food and energy prices) is decreasing for the first time since 2019.

– Our projections show that the trends are positive. Our latest projection shows that inflation may also be lower next year than we expected. Over the entire projection horizon – approximately 2 years – inflation should remain within the range consistent with the NBP target – 2.5 percent, plus or minus 1 percentage point – enumerated the president of the NBP, adding that good data on inflation is accompanied by equally favorable data on the economic situation.

Will the Monetary Policy Council lower interest rates again during the last meeting this year? Glapiński emphasized that another small reduction in interest rates is “really predictable”, but it is impossible to indicate when it will occur.

– We look from decision to decision at what is happening during that month and make a decision. Of course, what is actually predictable, if everything goes well, is a possible, small, further reduction – of course. It’s a matter of time – when. And here I just wanted to say that it is not said when – explained the head of the National Bank of Poland.

Glapiński indicated that further cuts are possible in a month, but equally in six months. – If everything goes well, it means we will reach 2.5%. and we will move 2.5 – 2.8 – 2.3 percent. and everything will be nicely stabilized and will result from the projection, then of course we will not insist on 4.50 or 4.25 – said the president of the central bank.

Inflation target this year?

The head of the NBP does not rule out that the inflation target may be achieved as early as next month. – I think that the moment is very close, maybe next month, when we will be exactly at the inflation target, i.e. 2.5%. Of course, you are not allowed to drink alcohol on the bank’s premises, but on some occasion all MPC members, bank management and all analysts are entitled to a glass of wine or champagne. – said Glapiński.