Inflation in May. There is a surprise

The Central Statistical Office (GUS) today presented a preliminary reading of consumer inflation for May. It amounted to 4.1 percent year to year, compared to 4.3 percent in April.

– In May 2025, the prices of consumer goods and services in rapid respect were higher than a year ago by 4.1% (price index 104.1), and compared to April 2025 reduced by 0.2% (price indicator 100.2) – informs GUS.

Inflation in May. Data better than forecasts

The data presented today by the Central Statistical Office is better than economists forecast. The market consensus was 4.2 percent. in an annual basis.

We learn from the data presented by the Central Statistical Office that prices in the “energy carriers” category went up by 13.1 percent in May. relative to the same period last year. In turn, in the category “Food and non -alcoholic drinks” price increase – compared to May 2024 – amounted to 5.5 percent.

A significant decrease (by 11.4 percent) compared to May last year was recorded in the “fuel to private means of transport” category.

We will know the final data on consumer inflation in May in mid -June. Shortly afterwards, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will publish data on base inflation. This is an indicator showing prices after turning off energy and food prices. Base inflation in April was 3.4 percent. year to year, compared to 3.6 percent in March. This reading was slightly better than the economists forecast (the market consensus was 3.5 percent).

Next week, a meeting of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) on interest rates will be held. Recent positive inflation reports have a positive effect on the mood in the MPC and the first interest rate reduction in 1.5 years. However, the statements of the members of the Gremium show that a reduction in June is an unlikely scenario.