How much will butter cost this year? Experts predict declines

The analysis of UCE Research, Hiper-Com Poland and the Blix Group shows that last year the price of butter in stores increased by 7.2%. compared to 2023. The largest price rally began in August, and in December the increase was already at the level of 37.5%. year to year. The largest increases were seen in supermarkets (by 11.3%), cash & carry chains (by 9.9%), and convenience stores (by 9.7%). On the other side, there are discount stores and hypermarkets, where the increases in butter prices were the smallest (by 1.2 and 2.6 percent, respectively).

Throughout 2024, a stick of butter cost on average approximately PLN 6.4, while in 2023 it was approximately PLN 5.9. In the last days of last year, a stick of butter in many stores exceeded PLN 10, so promotions remained a saving grace for consumers.

– The dynamics of butter prices varied significantly throughout last year. In the first quarter of 2024, butter prices were still lower on an annual basis. Increases at the wholesale level have been observed since the second quarter, when supply on global markets began to tighten. Retail prices of butter increased by over 20% from January to December 2024 – emphasizes Dr. Mariusz Dziwulski from PKO BP.

How much will we pay for butter in 2025?

What prices should you expect this year? – In my opinion, high butter prices will remain in the coming months, although their annual dynamics will decrease, among others. due to the statistical base effect. I do not rule out that the end of the year may even bring discounts. The factor limiting further increases on the butter market is the demand barrier. In times of high prices, consumers are certainly looking for alternatives in the form of plant spreads – predicts Dziwulski.

In turn, Julita Pryzmont, an expert from Hiper-Com Poland, predicts that in 2025 butter prices may be more stable than last year, although increases in the first months are still likely, which is related to the continuing impact of inflation, which continues to increase costs. production and logistics. If inflationary pressures persist, butter prices may continue to rise, although the pace of increases is likely to be more moderate than last year.

– The average price of a 200 g stick of butter in 2025 will probably be around PLN 6.8-7.0, assuming a moderate increase in costs and maintaining high competition between chains. However, consumers should be prepared for significant price differences depending on the store format and time of year. Prices may stabilize only in the second half of the year, provided that inflation begins to slow down, which would reduce cost pressure in retail trade – Pryzmont forecasts.