Housing prices rose, but stopped. Will they fall?

The first quarter of 2025 brought a clear recovery in the housing markets of the seven largest metropolises. At that time, the growing sales of new apartments went hand in hand with the high activity of developers. However, with each subsequent quarter the intensity of their activities decreased, which resulted in a decrease in the number of apartments on offer in the third quarter. For now, however, this has not had a major impact on average prices per square meter.

Although developers started 2025 on a grand scale, it did not last long. While in the first half of the year they put more premises on sale than they sold, which led to a record offer, in the third quarter investment activity dropped significantly. BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl data shows that the number of newly introduced apartments decreased by as much as 26% compared to the second quarter. The last time such a weak quarterly supply result – in terms of new apartments – occurred in the third quarter of 2023. At the same time, thanks to the improved availability of housing loans, demand recovered. As a result, for the first time in two years, the number of apartments offered by developers decreased slightly.

Operating in a dynamically changing and increasingly competitive market forces developers to have access to up-to-date and well-analyzed data. This data is absolutely necessary to make decisions. RynekPierwotny.pl BIG DATA and the tools it creates are intended to support developers and real estate agents in building strategies, monitoring the market and making investment decisions. These tools are BIG DATA Insight (formerly FLTR Pro), BIG DATA Analytical Platform and Competition Monitoring.

Despite this, nine months of this year were marked by stabilization of the average price per square meter of apartments on offer. Of course, she had her ups. Let us remember, however, that this happens not only when developers raise prices. The same effect may be brought by the appearance of more expensive premises on the market, the sale of the cheapest ones, or a combination of both factors. In the third quarter, there was also the effect of disclosing the prices of all apartments on offer. In September, emerging from the shadows were, among others: luxury apartments that increased the average price per square meter in Warsaw and Wrocław. On the other hand, many developers focused on projects with apartments available to borrowers, which had a stabilizing effect on the average price level.

Łódź is the first metropolis where the average price per square meter was lower in September than in the same period last year (-3%). In Kraków and Poznań, the change in the average over a 12-month period was only 1% in September. In turn, in Warsaw and the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis it was 3%, and in Wrocław – 4%. Only in the Tricity (or rather in Gdańsk) we recorded a double-digit increase in September (+11%). However, we have long written about this metropolis that it is specific due to its proximity to the sea. There are a lot of very expensive apartments being built there, near the Bay of Gdańsk and in Śródmieście.

In the coming months, the demand for new apartments will increase, but slowly. For now, despite four interest rate cuts, mortgage interest rates are still relatively high. In the case of loans with a temporarily fixed interest rate – most often chosen by buyers – it practically did not change in the third quarter. For housing loans to become realistically available to a wider group of buyers, two or three more interest rate cuts are needed.

Ultimately, the level of sales will be determined not only by the economic situation, but also by social sentiment. As behavioral economics notes, consumers’ subjective feelings – concerns about work, the economic or geopolitical situation – often have a greater impact on purchasing decisions than macroeconomic data themselves. Therefore, if buyers’ confidence grows and loans become more affordable, the primary market has a chance to significantly accelerate.

Author: Marek Wielgo, expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal