Historical decrease in inflation in Poland. This is the first such result in years
Base inflation in May fell to the lowest level since January 2020. This is the second month close to the NBP target.
In May 2025, base inflation reached the lowest level in over five years – the National Bank of Poland informed. This is the second month in a row, in which this indicator falls in the permissible band of fluctuations from the NBP inflation target, of 2.5 percent. With a deviation +/- 1 percentage point.
NBP data
The NBP data shows that base inflation after excluding food and energy prices in May amounted to 3.3 percent. year on year, which means a decrease by 0.1 percentage points relative to April. This is in line with the expectations of analysts. Basic inflation, after excluding the administrated prices, i.e. controlled by the state, dropped to 2.5 percent. with 2.7 percent in the previous month.
In contrast, inflation calculated after turning off the most variable prices remained at the level of 4.6 percent, unchanged in relation to April. In turn, the so -called The 15 % average cut, eliminating the impact of the most extreme price changes in the consumer basket, amounted to 3.8 percent, compared to 3.9 percent. a month earlier.
It is worth emphasizing that base inflation has been above the NBP inflational target continuously for over five years. The last time this indicator was in order in October 2019. The current results are therefore a signal of stabilization, but they do not mean a return to full balance.
What is base inflation?
NBP publishes four different base inflation indicators every month. They allow you to assess the sources of price pressure more accurately, separating permanent factors from short -term disorders, such as tax changes or supply shocks. This tool is helpful in assessing the durability of inflation and in forecasting its future course.
Meanwhile, the general CPI inflation rate, i.e. consumer inflation, increased in May by 4.0 percent. in an annual basis. This increase still reflects the effects of previous VAT increases on food and an increase in energy and gas prices. Forecasts indicate that in the third quarter, CPI inflation may approach the levels of base inflation.
