Heat is a threat to Polish cities. “It will be worse if we repeat the mistakes of the West”

The last weekend of June will certainly go down as one of the hottest weather episodes in recent years. According to an analysis published by The Economist, the three-day heatwave could have contributed to up to 12,000 deaths. additional deaths in Europe. However, it turns out that the scale of the threat is not determined solely by temperature. Equally important is how cities and buildings cope with long-term heating. Experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl website checked whether a similar scenario could also apply to Poland.

– Polish cities are not yet at the forefront of European threats, but they may quickly get there if they repeat the mistakes of the West – increasing building density, “concrete” and the dominance of heat-storing materials – notes Marek Wielgo, an expert at the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

Not the highest temperature, but lack of preparation

Contrary to appearances, the cities located in southern Europe are not most at risk. The highest increase in risk was recorded in metropolises whose inhabitants and infrastructure are not accustomed to long-term heat waves.

Paris was at the top of the list, where the model showed an over 300% increase in the risk of death and approximately 1.5 thousand deaths. excess deaths in just three days. London, Milan and Berlin also ranked high.

– This is counterintuitive. The highest risk occurs not where it is the hottest, but where cities and residents are not accustomed to such temperatures – explains Marek Wielgo.

The expert points out that the urban heat island phenomenon is also of great importance.

– This is compounded by the urban heat island effect. Concrete, asphalt and dark roofs accumulate solar energy, limiting the cooling of the city at night. This is particularly dangerous because high temperatures at night shorten the body’s regeneration time and increase the risk of death. The problem especially concerns apartments on the highest floors and premises with large glazing from the south and west, which heat up much faster during long days of heat than a dozen or so years ago, notes Wielgo.

Poland is not on alert for now, but the south of the country raises concerns

Although the situation in Poland remains more favorable than in many Western European countries, experts emphasize that this does not mean there is no threat. Large, densely built-up cities are particularly vulnerable.

– It is no coincidence that the highest risk did not concern the cities with the highest temperatures, but those where the heat was the most unusual. The model indicates that during the last heatwave the risk of death may have increased by several to about 50 percent. in most large cities, and only locally – mainly in the south of the country – approaching 70-80 percent. – explains Wielgo.

The cities in northern Poland are the safest. In Tricity, the increase in risk remains relatively small. In Warsaw, Poznań, Łódź and Wrocław it is usually in the range of 20-50 percent, while the situation is clearly more difficult in Kraków and Katowice.

This is where the risk begins to resemble levels seen in more vulnerable parts of Europe. Older people remain the most at risk – according to data cited by The Economist, as many as 85 percent. Most of the victims of last year’s heatwaves were over 65 years old.

Air conditioning helps, but it won’t solve the problem

Rising temperatures mean that air conditioning is no longer a luxury and is increasingly becoming standard equipment in apartments. For many people, especially seniors and chronically ill people, it may even be important for their health and life.

At the same time, experts from the Rynek Pierwotny.pl portal remind us that this solution has its price.

– The problem is that the air conditioner cools the apartment, but removes the heat outside. As a result, the interior becomes cooler, but the street becomes slightly hotter. When there are hundreds of thousands of such devices, and in the future millions, it ceases to be a problem of a single building and becomes a problem of the entire city – explains Wielgo.

Therefore, solutions that limit the heating of buildings already at the design stage are becoming more and more important. What do Polish buildings need? According to experts, first of all:

• green roofs and facades,

• light roof coverings reflecting sunlight,

• more trees and green areas,

• natural ventilation and appropriate location of buildings.

– Air conditioning will increasingly save the health and lives of residents during heat waves. However, if it becomes the only adaptation strategy, cities will need it more and more. Therefore, the future will be determined not only by the number of devices installed, but above all by the way buildings and public spaces are designed – summarizes Wielgo.