Gus is beating an alarm. It has not been so bad in Poland for years

According to the latest data of the Central Statistical Office (CSO), the population of Poland at the end of 2024 fell to 37.49 million people, which means a loss of 147 thousand. residents compared to the previous year. This is one of the biggest demographic declines in the history of the country.

The actual defect rate was -0.39%, which means that 39 people lost for every 10,000 inhabitants. For comparison, in 2023 this value was 34 people per 10,000.

Record low number of births

One of the most alarming indicators is the number of births. In 2024, 252 thousand live births were registered in Poland, i.e. 20,000 less than a year ago. This is the worst result since the end of World War II.

According to GUS experts, the demographic situation of Poland is very difficult and no significant changes can be seen on the horizon that could improve this trend.

Why are Poles decreasing? CSO indicates two key factors

GUS emphasizes that low fertility and high levels of emigration are the main causes of a drastic decrease in the number of inhabitants.

Fertility at a dramatic level

Fewer and fewer children have been born in Poland for three decades. The low number of births not only affects current statistics, but also means that in the future the Polish population will shrink even faster.

Emigration of young Poles

For years, young people have been traveling abroad massively, mainly in search of better living and working conditions. This applies especially to time emigration, which in many cases turns into a permanent change in the place of residence.

According to the Central Statistical Office, the low number of births and high emigration, in combination with the growing life expectancy, lead to the rapid aging of society.

Poland is getting old – the number of seniors is growing at a rapid pace

In 2023, the number of people aged 80 and more amounted to 1.6 million, which is almost 5% of the population. For comparison, in 2010 people over 80 were 1.3 million (3% of the population), and 2000 – 770 thousand. (2% of the population).

This trend means that in the following years the number of elderly will increase, which is a huge challenge for the pension system and healthcare.

What next? GUS forecasts are not optimistic

According to the CSO analysis, in the coming years one should not expect an improvement in the demographic situation. Lack of actions that can realistically increase the fertility and the continuous outflow of young people abroad will only deepen the problem of the state’s depopulation.

Experts alert that if this trend persists, in a dozen or so years Poland may have less than 35 million inhabitants, and the number of seniors will exceed 6 million.