Fewer development contracts. Is this the end of the housing boom?

The Ministry of Justice has recently published data on the number of notarial acts concluded in 2024. Particular attention should be paid to development contracts, which are an important indicator of the condition of the housing market.

As experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl portal notice, the Ministry of Justice is not usually associated with providing interesting statistics regarding the real estate sector, but each year it publishes a list of the number of contracts concluded in the form of a notarial deed. Among these little -publicized data are, among others Information on the sale of apartments and houses.

– It seems that the annual number of concluded developer contracts should be analyzed in the long run. The oldest statistics of the Ministry of Justice regarding the number of development agreements come from 2013, which of course is related to the date of introducing such contracts to the Polish legal order (April 29, 2012) – says Andrzej Prajsnar, expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

Development agreements – 2024 without a record

According to data from the Ministry of Justice, the number of developed contracts concluded in individual years is as follows:

• 2013 – 37,525 contracts,

• 2014 – 50,953 contracts,

• 2015 – 65,145 contracts,

• 2016 – 80,606 contracts,

• 2017 – 96,973 contracts,

• 2018 – 103,599 contracts,

• 2019 – 114,941 contracts,

• 2020 – 104,312 contracts,

• 2021 – 137,028 contracts,

• 2022 – 75,925 contracts,

• 2023 – 89,650 contracts,

• in 2024 – 82,448 contracts.

Expert: “Last year’s result is not surprising”

According to the expert, the result achieved last year does not arouse much surprise ..

– Especially considering the fact that statistics for 2023 increased the 2 % Safe Credit program. However, 2021 may remain record -breaking for a long time. When treating the number of development contracts as a determinant on the primary market, it is also worth remembering that such contracts apply only to the housing and houses being built, and the percentage of unfinished real estate in the entire offer of developers is variable – comments Andrzej Prajsnar.