Developers froze. What’s happening on the new real estate market?

This year will certainly not be a record year in terms of the number of apartments put into use. Data from the Central Statistical Office show that after eight months there were just over 128.8 thousand, i.e. approx. 11 percent. less than in the same period last year. Admittedly, these data do not show the current situation on the housing market. However, they will most likely worry, among others: producers of finishing products, furniture and household appliances.

Fewer keys to apartments and houses are handed over means a decline in demand for these products. Fortunately, there is a chance that in the coming years there will be more people willing to buy them, as evidenced by the statistics of the Central Statistical Office regarding apartments covered by building permits and apartments started. The former increased by 30% in eight months. more than a year ago, and the latter by over 35%. more.

A slight revival in single-family construction

We are particularly pleased with this year’s revival in single-family construction. During this period, individual investors obtained construction permits for nearly 53.5 thousand. apartments (mainly single-family houses). This means approximately 12 percent. increase compared to the same period a year ago. The question is whether this dynamics will continue in the coming months. The data from August may be slightly worrying (over 6.7 thousand apartments and houses covered by building permits), which are approximately 14 percent higher. worse than July. However, what is much more important from the point of view of the broadly understood construction industry is that this year individual investors started building a larger number of apartments than last year – after eight months there were approximately 54.4 thousand of them, which means an increase of over 11%. However, the August results indicate that the investment momentum in individual construction may lose strength in the third quarter.

Similarly in development construction. However, the building permits obtained by developers are not a concern. After eight months, there were approximately 138,200 apartments covered by them, i.e. more than 40 percent. more than a year ago. And the entire third quarter will probably be better than the previous ones. However, the data regarding housing starts are disturbing.

New development constructions

Although the August construction statistics of the Central Statistical Office indicate an increase in the investment activity of development companies, because they started the construction of approx. apartments, i.e. by almost 9%. more than in July. The balance of the eight months also looks very good, because there were nearly 105.2 thousand apartments started by developers during this period, i.e. approximately 55 percent more. more than in the same period last year. It is worth remembering, however, that this impressive result is largely the result of a low base. As experts from the RyekPierwotny.pl portal point out, for most of last year the start of construction was not supported by the uncertain economic situation, or more precisely by the fear of recession that could result in an increase in unemployment.

And it was only at the end of the year that the developers switched gears, when it became clear that such a worst-case scenario was unlikely to threaten us. What’s more, they started this year with exceptional verve. In terms of the number of apartment starts, the first quarter was absolutely the best in the history of the market. Unfortunately, in the following months the investment activity of developers decreased. The second quarter was definitely worse than the first, and the third quarter is expected to bring a further decline in the number of apartment starts.

There will be fewer apartments on the market for some time

And it’s hardly surprising, because not only have there been doubts whether the new borrower support program ““Start Loan” comes into force, with each month banks granted fewer and fewer loans on market terms. According to data from the Credit Information Bureau (BIK), in August banks granted 14.8 thousand. housing loans, i.e. 12% less than in July and 41% less less than in January this year. What’s worse, the number of loan applications also dropped significantly in August.

It should also be taken into account that the commencement of construction of apartments does not mean that they will automatically appear for sale. There are many indications that due to the decline in demand, developers will adopt a wait-and-see position. BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl data shows that in the third quarter of this year. in almost all metropolises (Kraków may be an exception), the new supply will be much lower than in the months preceding the holidays.