Developer “holes in the ground”. Where is the most apartments created?

Finding a new apartment with a date of completion in 2026 and even 2027 is relatively easy today. Experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl portal looked at exactly what part of the developers’ offer such premises and what impact this may have on the price policy of investors.

– Undenched development apartments definitely dominate, and those ready are a market minority. Such a conclusion can be drawn by observing large development markets – says Andrzej Prajsnar, expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

As he emphasizes, the current situation is far from the one from eleven years ago, when the participation of ready apartments in the offers of developers in the largest cities ranged from 36 percent. in Warsaw to 55 percent in Poznań.

Housing market – premises with the deadline of completion 2026/2027

According to Big Data Rynekpierwotny.pl X FLTT, at the end of July 2025, the share of apartments with the deadline set for 2026 or 2027 in the entire offer of developers from ten large cities was significant. In the case of premises that are to be ready next year, their participation was oscillated from 42 percent. in Krakow and Szczecin up to 52 percent in Bydgoszcz.

Flats were less numerous with the deadline in 2027, but the differences between cities were large – from 8 percent. in Bydgoszcz to 32 percent in Gdańsk. This indicator best shows the investment activity of developers in recent years. It is worth remembering that the average construction time for new apartments has been around 22-26 months for years.

Housing market – “holes in the ground” versus ready premises

Data analysis may ask the question whether apartments with a long completion date, commonly called “holes in the ground”, are more than ready -made development premises. Big data statistics Rynekpierwotny.pl X FLTR show that the July situation on the housing market was as follows:

• Bydgoszcz: 30 percent (ready)/8 percent (2027)

• Gdańsk: 12 percent/32 percent

• Katowice/GZM: 18 percent/22 percent

• Krakow: 14 percent/21 percent

• Lublin: 20 percent/20 percent

• Łódź: 22 percent/10 percent

• Poznań: 15 percent/19 percent

• Szczecin: 34 percent/10 percent

• Warsaw: 14 percent/21 percent

• Wrocław: 13 percent/26 percent

– Data clearly shows that in some cities the number of apartments with a donation date by 2027 exceeds the share of ready premises, which is vividly showed by the distribution of the development market in the largest urban centers says – Andrzej Prajsnar.

Housing market – the share of “holes in the ground” affects the price policy

The dominance of unfinished development apartments with a small participation of ready -made premises at the same time has a direct impact on the price policy of developers.

– Generally, the greater the percentage of ready apartments on offer, the more experts are prone to negotiations – explains Prajsnar.

The emerging premises require a smaller, gradually growing involvement of capital (both own and foreign).

– It can be assumed that it was the high percentage of apartments with a long date of implementation that was a factor that caused the smaller demand than at present (e.g. at the end of 2024) did not prompt investors to more clear price reserves. The expansion of the offer visible on the chart can be treated as the preparation of investors for the expected increase in sales in 2026-2027 (after further reductions of still high interest rates)-sums up the expert.