Collective layoffs. Should we be afraid for jobs?
30 thousand people reported for group layoffs per year is a norm that we have been dealing with for about a decade, apart from the Covid year, which was an anomaly. At that time, approximately 70,000 people were reported for layoffs. employees – explains Andrzej Kubisiak from the Polish Economic Institute. He argues that nothing unusual has been happening on the market in recent years.
Should the situation on the labor market be worrying? For the first time in over a year, slightly more companies plan to lay off than to hire employees – according to PIE research for the Monthly Business Conditions Index. At the beginning of September, 10 percent companies declared that they intend to reduce employment in the next three months, and 9 percent companies planned to hire new employees.
What’s happening on the labor market?
On the other hand, the vast majority of companies (81%) do not expect any changes in the number of employees. Most entities planning to reduce employment were among large companies – as many as 16 percent, and only 6 percent. planned to hire new employees.
At the same time, according to data from the Central Statistical Office, the scale of group layoffs increased – at the end of July this year. 22 companies declared 4.9 thousand layoffs. employees, which means that in total there were 19.4 thousand at the end of July. reported group layoffs in 156 workplaces. Is it a lot or a little? In an interview with OKO.Press, Andrzej Kubisiak from the Polish Economic Institute described the situation on the labor market.
He noted that in August this year there were more people reported for group layoffs than in the same month a year earlier – 19.8 thousand. to 18.4 thousand, but this is not a dramatic increase.
– In numerous articles about the wave of layoffs, we will not read that these are procedures in which the numbers determine the maximum number of people who will lose their jobs. That these processes last for months, sometimes even years. Negotiations need to be conducted with trade unions, if there are any in workplaces, Kubisiak noted.
Some group layoffs do not take place
He added that some of the announcements do not materialize at all, because, for example, within capital groups, employees move from one company to another. – Some banks have been in a permanent group layoff procedure for several years because they are restructuring their branches. The Ministry of Labor is evaluating how many of these group layoffs actually materialize. Last year, of the more than 30,000 announced layoffs, 17,000 were implemented. – he continued.
He assured that 30 thousand people reported for group layoffs per year is a norm that we have been dealing with for about a decade, apart from the Covid year, which was an anomaly. At that time, approximately 70,000 people were reported for layoffs. employees.
Although there is no reason to worry, alarmist reports influence employees to believe that something bad is happening on the market, so it is better not to look for a new job, but to stick to the one you already have.
– And suddenly it turned out that when we have almost the lowest historical level of unemployment, concerns about an increase in the unemployment rate are growing, as indicated by over one third of Poles – he said.
There are fewer offers available than in various periods in the past, which translates into a longer job search, but unemployment still fluctuates around 5%.