Collapse in housing? Experts with disturbing GUS data

The preliminary data of the Central Statistical Office (CSO) for May and the first five months of the year do not fill with optimism – housing still follows the inheritance path, and this trend is perpetuated in key indicators.

The CSO confirms the May declines

May GUS data once again confirms the inheritance trend in housing. As the experts of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal point out, it is still visible to explicit braking of development investments – even despite the slight reflection in the number of building permits issued. This may suggest that developers carefully approach the future of the market, fearing the deterioration of the sales situation in the coming months.

– Last month, investors started in total with the construction of 19 thousand. apartments, which is the result of almost 4 percent. worse than obtained in May last year and by 5 percent counting month to month. Developers are getting less and less with new investments – with a result of just over 11,000. started premises. This is again one of their weakest results from mid -2023 – says Jarosław Jędrzyński, expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

The apartment brakes

As experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl portal notice, a construction of nearly 95,000 has started in Poland from the beginning of this year. apartments and houses, which means a six percent regression in relation to the same period last year. In turn, developers obtained a result of 59.5 thousand. premises, or over one tenth weaker in relation to year to year. Such results clearly testify to the progressive inhibition of the investment economic situation of the primary housing market.

– Unfortunately, the CSO data on new building permits or reports with a construction project look little better, although in this case the Central Statistical Office announced a slight correction reflection. In total, in May, 20.7 thousand were obtained in all forms of construction. administrative decisions, which means an increase of 9 percent. relative to the preceding April, but at the same time a regression of over 16 percent. in relation to year to year. However, from the beginning of the year, investors obtained less than 103,000, which means a decrease in relation to the same period last year by 14 percent. – notes Jarosław Jędrzyński.

He draws attention to the result of development permits, which was at a level of less than 12.7 thousand in May.

– almost 65 thousand Since the beginning of the year, he has been communicating a fairly clear reflection in the account of month to month by 19 percent, but at the same time a very pronounced burst in the year -on -year relation – at 26 and 24 percent, respectively. These types of statistics are historically the weakest results for developers to obtain in question administrative decisions – he states.

What next with the housing market?

A negative picture of the situation in Polish housing is also confirmed by data on the number of premises put into use. As the experts of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal note, this year’s May there were only less than 15,000, i.e. by as much as 9 percent. less than a month earlier and less than 2 percent in relation to year to year. In turn, the result from the beginning of the year – of the order of 76.7 thousand. placed premises – there are over 3 percent worse than obtained in the same period last year.

– The latest information of the Central Statistical Office about the state of housing in Poland has a strong pessimistic meaning again. This time, the statistics of apartments put into use are particularly disturbing, which in May noted their long -term bottom of the listing. This may reflect investment delays or slower completion of development projects – says Jarosław Jędrzyński.

In his opinion, despite the corrective reflection of permits for the construction of developers, which is considered a reliable indicator of their investment optimism, it is difficult not to see the weakening moods of the builders of apartments for sale or rent.

– Visible regression in both starts, permits and premises commissioned to use a more precise approach of the industry, which can react to economic uncertainty, growing construction costs or expectations regarding interest rates – he notes.

It draws attention to individual investments that are more stable, although the CSO data show a general decrease in individual construction, the pace of this inheritance is milder than in the case of developers.

– Unfortunately, the housing construction market in Poland is more and more clearly slowing down. In May, statistically significant declines in the deposited and started premises were recorded, while the number of apartments in implementation is growing. This is a signal that developers work more carefully and slower than a year earlier. In the following months, it is worth observing whether the dynamics will normalize, especially in response to possible changes in interest rates or stabilization of material costs – he concludes.