Coffee like butter. Prices in stores firmly up

As the “price index in retail stores” reports, prepared by Uce Research and the University of WSB Merito, in July this year. Average coffee prices in stores increased by 18.3 percent. (ground), and by 16.8 percent (soluble) year on year. In June, the increases amounted to 25.1 and 20.3 percent, respectively. year on year. Entities estimate that two -digit increases should also be expected this month.

The creators of the report indicate that throughout 2024 the price of minced coffee increased by 5.4 percent, and soluble by only 1 percent. compared to 2023.

Why is coffee more expensive?

– The main causes of rapid increases in coffee prices can be divided into several key factors. One of them is climate change and adverse weather conditions. Areas suitable for cultivation are shrinking. It is forecasted that by 2050 their surface can fall by up to half – comments Dr. Rafał Parvi from the University of WSB Merito.

– The second issue is the rising costs of production and transport. Distributors and retailers began to transfer them to consumers. The third thing is a low level of global stocks. Next, you need to point to the growing global demand. In addition, there is speculation in financial markets – he adds.

The expert emphasizes that coffee prices on stock exchanges are strengthened by the activities of investment funds and speculators who react to information about cropping and other disturbances. This year, the price of Arabica exceeded USD 4.35 per pound, and Robusta reached a record 5,694 USD per ton. Fluctuations of exchange rates, including the weakening of the zloty towards the dollar, increase the costs of importing coffee to Poland. Parvi also pays attention to inflation and cost pressure. The increase in the costs of energy, work and packaging affects the retail prices of coffee. Trade chains in Poland intensify in spring promotional activities, which masks increases, but later leads to the effect of price reflection.

– Based on the analyzes of Hiper-COM Poland data and the situation on international raw material markets, it can be expected that by the end of 2025, average minced coffee prices will increase by another 4-7 percent, and in the case of soluble coffee-by 3-6 percent.-forecasts Julita Pryzont from Hiper-Com Poland.

– The growth rate will depend mainly on the stabilization of Arabica and Robusta’s ratings and the gold rate towards the dollar. If the zloty strengthens, price pressure may decrease slightly. Otherwise, the cost of imports will continue to grow – he adds.

The expert points out that the increases will be slightly milder in the case of soluble coffee, because some consumers have already started to limit its purchase or have switched to cheaper alternatives. In turn, minced coffee, especially in the premium segment, will continue to experience price pressure – both because of the global situation and the limited flexibility of the network in terms of promotion.

Few discount actions

A joint analysis of Hiper-Com Poland, Blix and UCE Research groups shows that retail chains are quite careful about making discount shares that could help to reduce coffee prices to some extent. In the first half of this year, retail stores made them only 0.1 percent. more than in the same period of 2024. According to Marcin Lenkiewicz from the Blix group, such a slight increase shows that commercial networks do not want to further reduce margins in the category in which the prices of raw material are record high and the sale itself remains stable. In this case, promotions are limited, because coffee is still a product with high consumer loyalty.

– In the near future it is difficult to expect a clear increase in the number of discount actions, unless there is a clear stabilization of prices on raw materials exchanges or the severity of the competitive struggle between discount stores. For consumers, this means rather the need to get used to higher prices and to track the occasion more carefully, because promotions may be rarer and less attractive than in previous years – predicts Lenkiewicz.