Brexit was supposed to be a breakthrough. The report shows what really happened over 10 years

Ten years after the referendum on Britain leaving the European Union, the outcome of this decision is becoming easier to assess. The report prepared by the Sobieski Institute and Deloitte shows that Brexit did not lead to a sudden collapse of the economy, but it left behind lasting and measurable costs.

The authors of the study emphasize that instead of a one-off crisis, the British economy entered the path of slower development. This process lasted for years and resulted in a lower growth rate and a weakening of the country’s position in the European economic system.

The effects of Brexit in numbers

According to the report, British GDP per capita is currently between 6 and 8 percent. lower than it would be in the scenario of remaining in the European Union. At the same time, enterprise investments decreased by 12-18 percent, which limits the possibilities of further development of the economy.

In addition, there was a 3-4% drop in productivity. and similar reductions in employment levels. The result is an economy that is both smaller and less efficient than it could have been without leaving the commonwealth.

The report also points to the consequences for public finances. The lower level of economic activity means a loss in budget revenues estimated at £75-100 billion per year.

The biggest losses in trading

The most visible effects of the changes concern trade. Exports of goods to the European Union decreased by 16%. compared to the pre-Brexit period. This means a decline in sales value of approximately £35 billion.

The concept of greater opening to non-European markets also failed. Exports to non-EU countries also fell, although on a smaller scale – by 8%, equivalent to approximately £18 billion.

Small and medium-sized enterprises were particularly affected. The number of companies exporting exclusively to the EU market decreased by 19%. Many entities gave up exporting activities due to additional costs and new administrative procedures.

Migration looks different than before Brexit

One of the main arguments of supporters of leaving the EU was the issue of migration. However, the report indicates that instead of limiting the influx of people, it was primarily a change in its structure.

After the implementation of the new migration system, net migration reached record levels and amounted to approximately 944,000. people in the year ended March 2023. At the same time, the number of students from EU countries starting their studies in the UK decreased. Since 2018, hundreds of thousands of Poles have also left the country.

Regions and the issue of sovereignty

The authors of the report point out that the effects of Brexit were felt particularly strongly by the regions that most actively supported leaving the European Union. The loss of full access to the single market weakened local supply chains, and national support programs did not compensate for previous benefits from EU funds.

The study also questions the argument regarding regaining full sovereignty. Although the UK has taken control of its own regulations, the economy remains strongly linked to the EU market and global supply chains. According to the authors, this means that the regained sovereignty has primarily a formal dimension.

The report’s conclusions are clear. Brexit did not cause a sudden crisis, but it led to a gradual weakening of the economy. A decade later, the costs of this decision are visible in lower investment, weaker trade and slower economic growth.