Apartments in Dubai are no longer so attractive. Are Polish investors withdrawing?

The conflict in the Middle East meant that military operations also reached Dubai – a city that had previously been considered a symbol of stability and luxury in this unstable region. This place has for years attracted wealthy investors from Poland who invested their capital in real estate in Dubai and other parts of the UAE. However, recent events are certainly not the scenario they expected.

Polish investors have been there for a long time

According to experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl portal, determining the exact number of Poles owning real estate in Dubai is not easy.

– The EU Tax Observatory report (Foreign investment in the Dubai housing market, 2020-2024) indicates that in the first half 2022, 274 Polish citizens had Dubai residential properties worth USD 137 million. This result was underestimated because it was based on incomplete and unofficial cadastral data. Of course, from 2022, the number of Poles investing in Dubai and other UAE emirates will probably increase – notes Andrzej Prajsnar, expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

In his opinion, local investors have been present on the Dubai real estate market in the past decade, and recent years have probably brought a further inflow of capital from Poland. Among other things, due to the square footage prices, which were not as high as one might think.

– The annual report of the authorities of the emirate of Dubai shows that in the years 2021-2024 the average sales price of an apartment increased from 14,719 to 19,488 dirhams per 1 sq m (at the AED/PLN exchange rate in this period amounting to PLN 0.95-PLN 1.36). Therefore, we are not talking about average prices, which are very high in relation to the “hottest” locations – for example in Europe. Let us, of course, remember the very large price differences in the Dubai market and the average square footage of premises clearly larger than in Poland, says Andrzej Prajsnar.

Dubai was in peak investment form

Just a month and a half before the recent events, the authorities of the emirate of Dubai boasted of record turnover on the local real estate market. According to preliminary statistics, last year there were over 270,000 cases. transactions with a total value of 917 billion dirhams (approx. PLN 908 billion at the current exchange rate). This result meant another annual increase in the value of transactions – this time by 20%.

– It is difficult to say what the future scenario of the situation and possible threats to Dubai and other UAE markets will be, because the Middle East conflict is very dynamic – says Prajsnar.

Such perturbations are nothing new?

Experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl portal point out that large fluctuations in the value and number of transactions on the Dubai real estate market have occurred before.

– For example, the entire period from 2017 to 2020 saw a decline in the total annual value of real estate transactions in Dubai by 36%. (from 248 to 159 billion dirhams). Only in the pandemic year of 2020, the negative change was 22%. However, the years 2021-2025 were marked by a boom, during which market turnover (compared to 2020) increased almost sixfold – reminds Prajsnar.