Apartment prices have gone up. This is where the growth was greatest

September brought an increase in the offer prices of new apartments in some of the largest Polish metropolises. The average price per square meter increased the most in Warsaw, but significant changes were also recorded in the Tricity and Wrocław.

According to preliminary data from BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl, the statistics were influenced primarily by the structure of apartments available on the market. Developers introduced premises that were more expensive than the average price on offer.

In Warsaw, the average price per square meter at the end of September exceeded PLN 19,900. PLN, which means an increase of 2%. compared to August. In the Tricity, the average increased by 1%. and exceeded 18 thousand PLN, setting a new record. Wrocław also saw an increase of 1%, to nearly 16,000. PLN per square meter

In the remaining analyzed metropolises, average prices remained at the previous month’s level. In Krakow they amounted to approximately 17.2 thousand. PLN per square meter, in Poznań PLN 14.4 thousand PLN, in Łódź 11.6 thousand. PLN, and in the cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis PLN 11.2 thousand. zloty.

– However, one should not conclude that Warsaw, Tri-City and Wrocław developers increased the prices of apartments already on offer. In fact, changes in the structure of the offer once again played a key role. This time, the markets in these metropolises have been supplied with a large pool of apartments that are clearly more expensive than average – notes Marek Wielgo, an expert at the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

In Warsaw, new apartments were extremely expensive

The difference is clearly visible in the case of apartments that were put on sale in September. In Warsaw, their average price was as much as PLN 23.2 thousand. PLN per square meter. In the Tricity it was PLN 18.9 thousand. PLN per square meter. The inflow of such premises influenced the average price of the entire offer available to buyers.

However, it is worth using more than just the average to assess the market situation. The second important indicator is the median, i.e. the value located exactly in the middle of the price list. This means that half of the apartments are priced above the median and half are priced lower.

In September, the largest increase in the median was recorded in the Tricity. Within a month, it increased by 3%, to nearly 18,000. PLN per square meter. In Wrocław it increased by 1%, to PLN 14.9 thousand. PLN, while in Warsaw it increased by less than 1%, reaching PLN 17.5 thousand. PLN per square meter

In Kraków, the median remained at 16,000. PLN, in Łódź it amounted to 11.2 thousand. PLN, and in Poznań 13.5 thousand. zloty. In the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis, there was a decrease of 1%, to 10.9 thousand. PLN per square meter

Tricity raises the price bar

The difference between the mean and the median can tell you a lot about the structure of the market. If the average is significantly higher, it may mean that the statistics are strongly influenced by the relatively small number of very expensive apartments.

– It is no coincidence that Warsaw is the leader here. At the other extreme are Łódź and the cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis, where the difference between the average and the median is symbolic. There is a luxury segment there, but it does not have the same impact on statistics as in the capital – notes Marek Wielgo.

Tricity is a special case in this respect. The difference between the median and average price per square meter is small there, but it does not mean that the market behaves similarly to Łódź or the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis.

– Warsaw is an example of a market where price statistics are increasingly shaped by top-shelf apartments. In Tricity the situation is different. There, price changes are determined not only by the influx of expensive apartments, but also by the rapid shrinking offer of relatively affordable apartments. The effect is that the price bar is raised for the entire market, not only for its most exclusive segment – explains the expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

More expensive premises change the image of the market

Data on the structure of the offer show that in Warsaw the number of apartments costing up to PLN 15,000 per month. PLN per square meter decreased from PLN 4.4 thousand to 4.2 thousand, i.e. by 4%. At the same time, the number of premises with a price above PLN 20,000. PLN per square meter increased from PLN 5,000. to 5.2 thousand, also by 4%. It was the stronger share of the most expensive apartments that caused the average to grow faster than the median.

In Tricity, the number of apartments is up to 15,000. PLN per square meter decreased from PLN 3.4 thousand to 3.3 thousand, i.e. by 4%. At the same time, the number of premises costing over PLN 20,000. PLN per square meter increased from PLN 2.9 thousand to over 3,000, i.e. by 7%. In this case, however, the median increased more than the average, which indicates a broader shift in the price structure of the offer.

In Wrocław, the number of apartments priced at up to 15,000. PLN per square meter practically did not change and still exceeded PLN 5.1 thousand. In turn, the number of premises costing over PLN 20,000. PLN per square meter increased by 7%, from PLN 1.2 thousand up to 1.3 thousand apartments. As a result, both the mean and median increased.

– Therefore, when assessing the housing market, it is worth looking not only at the average price, but also at the median and price structure of the offer. Only their combination allows us to assess whether the offer becomes more or less available to buyers – summarizes Marek Wielgo.