Alarming data on Polish debt. There is a new report

Poland is facing serious financial challenges. According to Eurostat data, at the end of the third quarter of 2024, the ratio of public debt to GDP increased by 4.9 percentage points, reaching 53.5%. This alarming data is quoted by the Bankier.pl portal, warning against the crisis of public finances.

Debt in the EU and Poland

The average ratio of public debt to GDP in the European Union was 81.6%, and in the euro area 88.2%. Poland, although below these medium, shows one of the fastest temperature of debt growth. This increase is only higher in Finland (+6.7 percentage points) and Estonia (+5.3 percentage points).

In terms of fiscal deficit, the situation of Poland also looks disturbing. The report shows that in the third quarter of 2024 the Polish deficit amounted to as much as 6.7% of GDP. Only Bulgaria (8.7%) and Romania (8.6%) are worse. For comparison, the average deficit in the euro area amounted to 2.6%, which is in the criteria with Maastricht.

Expert warnings

As Bankier.pl indicates, such a rapid increase in debt in combination with a high deficit can create a dangerous situation for public finances. The Fitch agency has already warned that Poland may exceed the average debt for countries with rating “A”, which could result in a decrease in creditworthiness.

According to government forecasts, public debt in relation to GDP in 2026–2028 will exceed 60% – a constitutional debt limit. This means the need to cut public expenditure or stimulate economic growth to avoid a financial crash.

What next with the Polish budget?

2025 also does not promise to be optimistic. The state budget assumes a deficit exceeding 5% of GDP, which in combination with ambitious economic forecasts can be difficult to implement. If the current trend continues, Poland may be among the countries with a critical financial situation that must count on greater control from international creditors.