After the election, hopes for a Brexit reversal will grow. “Various ideas may pop into your head”

The UK parliamentary elections will be held this coming Thursday. Everything indicates that they will bring political change – after 14 years of rule, the Conservative Party will hand over power to the Labour Party. In pre-election polls, Labour has an average of 20 percentage points more than the ruling Tories. There are also studies in which Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s party is also losing to Nigel Farage’s Eurosceptic party.

UK Elections: Reasons for Tory Defeat

– There was a natural fatigue with Tory rule. It was a very dynamic 14 years, during which five prime ministers changed, there were four terms of parliament – Dr. Przemysław Biskup from the Polish Institute of International Affairs reminds in an interview with “Wprost”.

The previous election, held at the end of 2019, was won by the Conservative Party under the leadership of Boris Johnson in a landslide. Our interviewee points out that that victory was the result of a “successful attempt to develop a socially conservative electorate, although quite social in constituencies traditionally dominated by the Labour Party.”

– The policies that were then pursued proved to be at odds with the expectations of this electoral base. The demands of those, many of whom voted Tory for the first time in their lives, included limiting the scale of legal immigration, because it has an adverse effect on the labour market. These voters also hoped for a structural reconstruction of the British economy, so that it once again had a strong industrial component – and jobs for skilled workers. However, this did not happen – explains the expert.

Another reason for the weakening of the Tories is – as Dr. Biskup points out – the emergence of an alternative in the form of Farage’s party. – Polls indicate that the Reform Party could take over as much as a quarter of the Conservative Party’s voters from 2019 – our interlocutor notes.

Scandals also played a significant role, such as Prime Minister Johnson and his associates breaking pandemic restrictions. In recent days, there has been a lot of talk about the so-called betting scandal (politicians from Prime Minister Sunak’s circle were supposed to use confidential information to place bets on the election date). “This shows the far-reaching moral decay in the leadership of this party,” says Dr. Biskup.

Keir Starmer: Prime Minister greeted with unenthusiastic response

Our interviewee has no doubt that the strong poll advantage of the Labour Party is primarily the result of the weakness of the previous ruling party, rather than the enthusiasm of the British people towards the formation that handed power to the Tories in the spring of 2010, in a mood not much better than the current team. “There is no great enthusiasm among the British people about Labour returning to power, but there is such great fatigue with the Tories’ rule that most voters are ready for a new beginning,” explains the expert.

The Labour Party has been led by Keir Starmer since 2020. If the party wins, he will become the new British prime minister. Asked what to expect from the new occupant of 10 Downing Street, Dr Bisku replies: – Starmer is a very cautious man, so he should do quite well in such everyday politics, at least in this initial period. On the other hand, Labour will inherit a difficult situation. I mean here a huge national debt, a high budget deficit. The Labour Party promises not to drastically increase taxes, but commits to increasing spending. So there are several contradictions in their programme.

It cannot therefore be ruled out that the new government will quickly start to wear out. – This is a very real scenario. The recent experience of the Conservative Party shows that even when you start a government with great enthusiasm from society, with a significant majority in the House of Commons, in reality all this means very little and can change in a relatively short time – says the expert.

Will new government reverse Brexit?

One of the most important events during the 14-year rule of the Conservative Party was the so-called Brexit. Will the new, more pro-European team try to reverse it, for example by calling a referendum, this time on the accession of Great Britain to the European Union? – At present, we are only in the sphere of speculation. It will be easier to answer this question when we know the election results and the specific composition of the House of Commons. What can be said today is that the Labour Party is not seeking a mandate to fundamentally change the pro-Brexit status quo, which means that the new government will not have such a mandate. However, it cannot be ruled out that some attempts will not be made – says Dr. Biskup.

– If the Labour Party controls 500 out of 650 MPs in the House of Commons, various ideas may pop into your head. Such a majority gives you a sense of enormous power and agency. The question is, however, how society will react to it. Around 40% of Britons are supporters of Brexit, less than 60% believe it was a mistake. However, when the polls ask about returning to the European Union, the results are more even – adds.

The vision of the UK’s relationship with the European Union was included in the Labour Party’s election manifesto. “The basic vision assumes that as Great Britain we remain outside the customs union and the common market. This limits the possibilities for manoeuvre in the future, and at the same time indicates that Labour would like closer relations with the European Union, the conclusion of a few additional agreements. There is talk, for example, of an agreement in the field of cooperation in foreign policy and security. Labour would also like to simplify border controls, they are ready to conclude an agreement on sanitary standards. But there are also difficult topics, such as the issue of illegal immigrants,” explains our interlocutor.