A surprising turnaround in the housing market. Such prices were not expected in the capital

The new apartment market in Poland is beginning to respond more clearly to the changing mood of buyers. In July, the average offer prices of apartments from developers in the largest cities remained stable for the most part. The exceptions were Wrocław and Tricity, where prices increased, and Warsaw, where a decline was recorded for the first time in eight months – according to preliminary data from BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl.

Warsaw has a lower price per square meter for the first time in a long time

The situation in the capital traditionally arouses the greatest emotions on the real estate market. Warsaw is not only the largest, but also the most expensive housing market in Poland. Just a few months ago, it seemed that the average price per square meter of new apartments would exceed the psychological limit of PLN 20,000. zloty. However, this did not happen.

In July, the average offer price of new apartments in Warsaw dropped by 1%. – from almost 19.9 thousand PLN to approximately 19.8 thousand PLN per square meter. It was the first reduction since November last year.

– As you can see, from the point of view of apartment buyers, July had two heroes. Wrocław was negative, while Warsaw turned out to be positive – comments Marek Wielgo, expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

He points out that in July, Warsaw developers introduced apartments for sale, the average price per square meter of which was less than PLN 14.7 thousand. zloty.

– The last time Warsaw developers introduced such a cheap new offer to the market was in July and October 2023 – emphasizes Marek Wielgo, at the same time emphasizing that these are preliminary data and may still be subject to slight correction.

Wrocław and Tricity are increasing average prices

In most of the largest metropolises, July did not bring any major changes. More pronounced movements were visible only in two locations. In Wrocław, the average price per square meter of apartments available on offer increased by 2%, to PLN 15.7 thousand. zloty. In the Tricity, the increase was 1% and the average price reached PLN 18,000. PLN per square meter.

In other large cities, prices remained stable. In Kraków, the average was 17.1 thousand. PLN per square meter, in Poznań PLN 14.3 thousand. PLN, in Łódź 11.4 thousand PLN, and in the cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis PLN 11.1 thousand. zloty.

According to an expert from the RynekPierwotny.pl portal, increases in Wrocław and Tricity do not necessarily mean that developers have decided to raise prices. The reason may be the structure of new investments that have just gone on sale.

– It is more likely that they launched investments that were already ready to start selling. All the more so because both Wrocław and Tricity are markets where an important group of buyers are wealthy people and buyers improving their housing conditions. The demand for premises of a higher standard and in better locations remains relatively high there, adds Marek Wielgo.

Developers cannot change the offer quickly

The drop in prices in Warsaw may suggest that companies have begun to better adapt their offers to the financial capabilities of customers. Especially since the second quarter brought a clear weakening of demand. However, experts indicate that the housing market reacts with a delay.

The reason is simple – apartments for sale today were often prepared several years earlier, when the economic situation and buyers’ expectations were completely different.

– Of course, some companies can decide on the order in which they launch previously prepared investments, but their freedom is limited, among others, by: expiry dates of construction permits, the level of advancement of preparations or previous business decisions. In other words, developers can influence the moment of launching some projects, but they are not able to quickly change the structure of the housing offer, because most of the key investment decisions were made several years earlier – notes an expert from the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

Prices are still higher than a year ago

Despite the July correction, the prices of new apartments in many cities remain higher than a year ago. The greatest increase was recorded in Warsaw, where the average price per square meter is now 11 percent higher. higher than a year ago.

In the Tricity, the increase is 8 percent, in Wrocław and Poznań 6 percent, and in Kraków 2 percent. Łódź and the cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis remain the only large markets where the average price per square meter is slightly lower than a year earlier.

– Changes in the average asking price result primarily from changes in the structure of new supply, and not from a widespread increase or decrease in the prices of apartments already on sale. At the same time, the record high offer of apartments limits the pressure on price increases and favors negotiations, especially in cities with oversupply, such as Łódź or the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis – explains Wielgo.