A huge crisis in tourism. This is how much Dubai and other cities will lose

The war in the Middle East has been going on for almost a week. Analytical companies are already producing reports estimating how the global conflict will affect tourism in the region. It is known that countries located on the Persian Gulf will experience a smaller presence of tourists not only now, but also long after the end of hostilities. “We estimate that in 2026, the number of tourist arrivals to the Middle East may decline year-on-year by 11-27 percent due to the conflict. Back in December, our forecast assumed a further 13 percent increase,” according to an analysis by Tourism Economics. We know which countries will suffer the most.

Billions of dollars lost to tourism

In 2026, the Middle East will be visited by 23 to 38 million fewer tourists than forecasts prepared at the end of 2025 suggested. Of course, the final number of visitors will be influenced by the end date of the conflict, which remains unknown for now. However, tourists to the United Arab Emirates or Qatar may not return until long after it is safe. That means billions of dollars in losses.

“When it comes to places that the US and UK governments have included on their travel or flight ban lists, we are unfortunately seeing an avalanche of cancellations,” Ibrahim Khaled, director of marketing at the Middle East Travel Alliance, tells Euronews.

These countries will be most affected by the losses

According to Tourism Economics, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are particularly vulnerable to the effects of the conflict. The reason is the very large annual number of guests from abroad and the strong dependence on air connections. “As indicated in the report, air transport is more affected by the deterioration in tourist sentiment than alternative forms of land transport,” we read. The situation is different in Qatar and Bahrain, where arrivals by land account for 32 and 74 percent, respectively. all arrivals.

Not only the Middle East, but also distant Asia will feel the effects of the tourism crisis. The current disruptions, including canceled flights and high rebooking prices, may impact travelers’ choices in the coming months.