A great rebound in housing. Developers are back in the game

After last month’s collapse, the Central Statistical Office notes a rebound in housing construction statistics. Data for September and three quarters show a positive return.

– Thus, the investment segment of the primary housing market has significantly deepened its volatility in recent months, emphasizing the lack of decision as to forecasts of the future economic situation. However, the medium-term trend is still a decline in data – notes Jarosław Jędrzyński, expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

Are developers back in the game?

Experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl website indicate that although housing construction has rebounded after the August decline, the Central Statistical Office data show that the long-term downward trend remains unchanged.

– The September rebound is still far from the end of the downward trend, although it is certainly a positive signal averting the risk of a collapse in the investment situation in the primary residential segment. Just as before, developers were clearly at the forefront of slowing down investment activity, now they are the ones pulling the market up, performing clearly better than investors building for their own needs in every point of the Central Statistical Office data, says Jarosław Jędrzyński.

In his opinion, the data that is most important from the point of view of the current economic situation, i.e. regarding apartments whose construction has started, looks particularly promising.

– It seems that this time the expectations of a revival in sales prevailed over the concerns of apartment builders about its slowdown in the foreseeable future – he says.

September in housing – a rebound after the August low

In September, investors started the construction of nearly 20,000 apartments, which means an increase of 22%. compared to the previous month and slight progress year-on-year. The biggest rebound, around 40%, was recorded by developers who started the construction of 11.6 thousand sq m. premises. This result is almost the same as last year, but still significantly below the average in recent years.

In the three quarters of 2025, the construction of nearly 166,000 has started in Poland. apartments and houses, which means an almost 10% decrease compared to the same period last year. Developers started almost 100 thousand premises, i.e. by 14%. less than a year earlier. These results clearly show that the primary housing market is still slowing down.

Building permits – improvement after bottom testing

In September, we also observe a rebound in the data regarding building permits and construction project applications. In total, almost 24,000 were spent. administrative decisions, which gives a neutral result y/y and as much as 23 percent better compared to August.

However, throughout the year, investors obtained PLN 191,000. permits, which means a decrease of 13%. compared to the same period last year. These data show that despite the monthly rebound, the economic situation on the housing market still remains in the slowdown zone.

– Individual investors, obtaining PLN 65,000 since the beginning of the year. permits, improved the result for three quarters by nearly 8%. in the y/y report. Meanwhile, developers with a result of PLN 120,000 administrative decisions were worse by more than one fifth, notes Jędrzyński.

The pace of apartment completion has increased

The improvement in the condition of the residential investment market in Poland is also confirmed by data on premises put into use. A total of 19,000 were completed in September. apartments, i.e. by over 25 percent more than a month earlier and 22 percent more than a year ago.

Throughout the year, the number of completed premises amounted to 144,000, which is almost the same result as in the same period of 2024. This shows that the investment completion segment maintains a stable pace, despite previous market fluctuations.

Expert: “It is still difficult to talk about breaking the downward trend”

According to Jędrzyński, the September data from the Central Statistical Office show that residential construction in Poland has been on an “economic swing” in recent months, trying to break out of the medium-term downward trend that has been dominant for several months. As he emphasizes, housing starts remain a tight squeeze and, after the August collapse, they tried to stay afloat again in September.

– At the same time, the statistics of developers’ building permits improved significantly and, after testing the bottom of long-term lows, they saw a significant recovery in September. If we consider it as a reliable indicator of developers’ investment optimism, it is difficult not to notice its exceptional variability in recent months – says an expert from the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

In his opinion, the recovery may result from the expected improvement in demand for housing loans after the drop in interest rates and slowly growing optimism in the sales market of new apartments at the end of the year.

– However, it is still difficult to talk about breaking the downward trend – investors are acting cautiously, and their decisions remain strongly dependent on financing costs, construction cost inflation and economic uncertainty – says Jędrzyński.

He emphasizes that if the improvement in the number of permits and investments continues, the last quarter of this year and the beginning of next year may bring further recovery.

– For now, however, the market is still balancing between caution and hope for a lasting recovery. September’s data can therefore be considered a positive, but still fragile, signal of improvement in the housing construction sector, the expert concludes.